Dian's Column
Dian's Archive

Lavine/Liberman Archive




Lipper
Muriel Siebert & Co.



Back to 5



By Dian Vujovich

What a curious market we’re in. From its close on October 9, through yesterday’s close, (November 10), the DJIA has gone from scoring in the high 9,000-range to over 10,200 plus. Seems like a big leap doesn’t it? But, that’s our minds for us. In reality the gain has been 383.04 points. Or, less than 4 percent.

While any gain is a good thing and 4 percent in one month is certainly a plentiful gain, I expected my list of stocks selling under $20 a share would number less this month than last. Not so. We’re back to five.

The re-entry was Intel. Yesterday, it closed at $19.50 a share. October 9’s close was $20.17.

So along with Intel, the four other company’s include: Alcoa ended yesterday at $13.47 (77 cents less per share than when I looked last month); Bank of America, $16.43 (down $1.47 from my October 9 numbers); General Electric, $15.78 (4 pennies less per share); and Pfizer at 17.56 (that’s up 64 cents a share from last month’s look). Pfizer’s gain is under 4 percent putting it right in line with the Dow’s overall percentage gain.

As for what we can expect during the rest of this month, as always it’s anybody’s guess. And given that predictions have a 50-50 chance of coming true if one is choosing between whether the Dow will go up or down, let’s look at what history shows.

Louie Navellier’s blog from November 4 (http://tinyurl.com/ybq6dxr) was chock-full of interesting historical market data about November’s past. Here are some tidbits from it:

• In the last two November’s, the Dow has closed the month down from its previous month’s close.

• During election years, the Dow’s record has moved ahead. For instance, it gained 6.6 percent when Richard M. Nixon was elected president in November 1972; November 1982 mid-term elections brought the Dow up; when President Bill Clinton won his second term in November 1996, the Dow hit a new high that month of 6081; and George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004 brought with it positive November gains.

• As for ancient history, in November 1909, the Dow hit a high of 73.64. Two years later, however, it had fallen over 27 percent. In 1919, the Dow hit a post-war high in November of 119.62 but by August 1920 had fallen 47 percent to 63.9.

•And then there was 1929. The Dow’s low that year was reached on November 13 when it closed at 198.69. That represented a drop of 48 percent in just two months. Yikes.

Here’s hoping that by my next month’s Dow look there will be only three stocks in that average selling under 20 bucks a share.


To read more articles, please visit the column archive.




[ top ]