Across My Desk: Short-Term Election Year Gains and Losses
If you've ever wondered how the S & P has performed during election years, wonder no more. In the July 2, 2004 issue of " InvesTech Research," a nifty little chart shows the results.James Stack, author of that monthly newsletter, noted that election years are normally stable ones in the stock market. I'd say that's sort of true, as his results only kept their eye on the S&P for three months---between the dates of July 1st and Election Day. The research in the chart begins in 1928 and goes through the last election in 2000. Keep in mind, while Standard and Poor's was providing weighted index dated to the world in the 1920s, the S&P 500 wasn't introduced until 1957. In any event, the chart is worth a read.
FYI, the largest gain was in 1932 when the S&P was up 57.4 percent during that three-month time period. The biggest loss? In 1960, when that index was down 3.4 percent.
Here's a look at the three-month S&P Election Year returns beginning in 1928:
| YEAR | RETURN |
| 1928 | 17.2 percent |
| 1932 | 57.4 percent |
| 1936 | 15.2 percent |
| 1940 | 13.1 percent |
| 1944 | -0.2 percent |
| 1948 | 0.0 percent |
| 1952 | -2.1 percent |
| 1956 | 1.4 percent |
| 1960 | -3.4 percent |
| 1964 | 3.5 percent |
| 1968 | 3.7 percent |
| 1972 | 6.0 percent |
| 1976 | -0.5 percent |
| 1980 | 12.3 percent |
| 1984 | 11.2 percent |
| 1988 | 1.2 percent |
| 1992 | 1.7 percent |
| 1996 | 5.7 percent |
| 2000 | -2.6 percent |
| 2004 | ? |
| (Source: InvesTech Research) |
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