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Current Standing

By Dian Vujovich

The talking heads were out in full force on Thursday claiming the market was going to crash again. One saw the Dow dipping to levels under 7000, another 9600.
There must have been no up-side seers available that day. At least none where speaking as I surfed the cable news stations.

No matter what your take on how the markets will perform near-term, here are tidbits from very recent past data to mull over before shooting yourself in the foot.

From Bob Dole and BlackRock’s Weekly Investment Commentary for the week of November 16, 2009:

-As we’re near the end of the third-quarter earnings season, more than 90 percent of companies have reported, 80 percent have beaten expectations. That’s the highest rate of positive reports in 26 years, i.e., since 1983.

-Revenues have also exceeded forecasts. About 60 percent of companies posted revenue gains and thus also beating expectations.

-Inflation appears unlikely to be a near-term threat. Nor are we expecting the Fed to change course any time soon.

-Although conditions are improved from one year ago, we expect the recovery to be sustainable but are not forecasting robust levels of growth and don’t expect the pace of advances in the stock market over the past eighth months to continue as powerfully as they have.

-Going forward see a slow grind upward rather than a powerful advance.

To download BlackRock’s full investment report for the week visit http://tinyurl.com/y8jy537.

And now from Louis Navellier’s Monday, November 16th newsletter comes this:

-Despite the stumbling U.S. economy, the world is enjoying a vibrant recovery.
Third-quarter growth in Singapore was up 15.9 percent; South Korea growth up 12.3 percent; China up 8.9 percent, including Hong Kong, +13.9 percent; and Japan’s growth up +2.3 percent.

-The European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat announced that euro-zone GDP grew at a 1.6% annual rate last quarter. The fastest growing euro-zone economy was Germany, growing at a 2.8% annual rate followed by Italy at 2.4 percent.

-For the first time in decades, Europe’s unemployment rates are now below America’s.

-Consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate. The University of Michigan-Reuters consumer sentiment index fell to 66, from 70.6 in October and 73.5 in September.

-And the federal budget deficit is now at its highest percent of GDP since 1945, and that’s with super-low interest rates.

Navellier’s full report is at http://tinyurl.com/2kyjln.

My talking head can’t decide which way to call the future but I know it will get here. Guess I’ll just wait and see.

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